Forecasting in a Dynamic World

Event Synopsis

Dr. Luis Willumsen 

Managing Partner, Nommon Solutions and Technologies

The Limits of Forecasting when dealing with Uncertainty Accurate forecasting, for example of travel demand, is impossible in the light of future uncertainty. The talk will consider different ways to address this difficulty given that the end objective must be the provision of good advice to decision makers. Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Planning and Stochastic Risk Analysis have been proposed as good approaches to dealing with uncertainty. Real Options is an approach that offers a way to incorporate plan flexibility in decision making.

Speaker

Prof. Tom van Vuren

Strategic Consulting Partner, AmeyVisting Professor,

Institute forTransport Studies, University of Leeds

Providing new transport options affects the choices that people make. Some of these are intended, others surprising. This is particularly so for road infrastructure investment. Tom will explore the definitions of induced demand and generated traffic, and explain why distinguishing between the two is important for planners. By using the Braess paradox as an example, he will open the discussion on thinking about induced demand as a positive policy.